& \multicolumn{6}{c}{ \textbf{Certainty about competence} } & \multicolumn{6}{c}{ \textbf{Certainty about policy} } \\
\cmidrule(lr{1em}){2-7} \cmidrule(lr{1em}){8-13} 
\textbf{1. Uncertainty} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{(1)} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{(2)} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{(3)} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{(4)} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{(5)} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{(6)} \\ \midrule
\textbf{A. Incumbent}&                  &         &                  &         &                  &         &                  &         &                  &         &                  &         \\
\hspace{0.1cm} \textit{Intensive Invite}&    0.180\sym{*}  &  (0.100)&    0.201\sym{*}  &  (0.101)&    0.184\sym{**} &  (0.079)&    0.180\sym{**} &  (0.068)&    0.207\sym{***}&  (0.072)&    0.196\sym{***}&  (0.061)\\
\hspace{0.1cm} Days since Sept 1&    0.000         &  (0.002)&   -0.000         &  (0.003)&    0.001         &  (0.003)&    0.006\sym{***}&  (0.002)&    0.006\sym{**} &  (0.002)&    0.005\sym{**} &  (0.002)\\
\hspace{0.1cm} Respondent is male&   -0.079\sym{*}  &  (0.042)&   -0.083\sym{*}  &  (0.050)&   -0.063         &  (0.045)&   -0.072\sym{*}  &  (0.038)&   -0.054         &  (0.053)&   -0.044         &  (0.042)\\
\hspace{0.1cm} Respondent age&    0.001         &  (0.002)&    0.001         &  (0.002)&    0.001         &  (0.002)&    0.007\sym{***}&  (0.002)&    0.007\sym{***}&  (0.002)&    0.008\sym{***}&  (0.002)\\
\hspace{0.1cm} Candidate party: UP&   -0.109\sym{*}  &  (0.062)&   -0.102         &  (0.074)&   -0.133         &  (0.080)&   -0.041         &  (0.043)&   -0.049         &  (0.051)&   -0.091\sym{*}  &  (0.051)\\
\hspace{0.1cm} Education: Primary&   -0.130\sym{*}  &  (0.070)&   -0.179\sym{**} &  (0.087)&   -0.127         &  (0.083)&   -0.036         &  (0.063)&   -0.057         &  (0.077)&   -0.103         &  (0.071)\\
\hspace{0.1cm} Education: Secondary&    0.041         &  (0.056)&    0.033         &  (0.056)&    0.020         &  (0.059)&    0.023         &  (0.050)&    0.005         &  (0.058)&    0.032         &  (0.059)\\
\hspace{0.1cm} Education: Tertiary&    0.003         &  (0.043)&   -0.049         &  (0.058)&   -0.039         &  (0.047)&    0.055         &  (0.049)&    0.034         &  (0.058)&    0.048         &  (0.059)\\
\hspace{0.1cm} Number of candidates (2017)&    0.028\sym{**} &  (0.012)&    0.025         &  (0.016)&    0.021         &  (0.013)&   -0.001         &  (0.013)&    0.015         &  (0.017)&    0.004         &  (0.014)\\
\hspace{0.1cm} Incumbent ran in election (2017)&   -0.242\sym{***}&  (0.076)&   -0.215\sym{**} &  (0.082)&   -0.218\sym{***}&  (0.078)&   -0.260\sym{***}&  (0.048)&   -0.290\sym{***}&  (0.060)&   -0.271\sym{***}&  (0.057)\\
\hspace{0.1cm} Log registered voters (2017)&    0.540\sym{***}&  (0.185)&    0.401\sym{**} &  (0.179)&    0.448\sym{**} &  (0.208)&    0.255\sym{**} &  (0.124)&    0.275\sym{**} &  (0.124)&    0.250\sym{*}  &  (0.143)\\
\hspace{0.1cm} Number of debates in district&   -0.124\sym{*}  &  (0.069)&   -0.103         &  (0.096)&   -0.083         &  (0.078)&    0.076         &  (0.073)&    0.004         &  (0.092)&    0.065         &  (0.080)\\
\hspace{0.1cm} 1st voteshare (2011)&    0.780         &  (0.744)&    0.476         &  (0.824)&    0.515         &  (0.851)&    0.518         &  (0.665)&    0.218         &  (0.800)&    0.564         &  (0.745)\\
\hspace{0.1cm} 2nd voteshare (2011)&    2.373\sym{***}&  (0.554)&    2.140\sym{***}&  (0.556)&    2.170\sym{***}&  (0.599)&    1.458\sym{***}&  (0.324)&    1.601\sym{***}&  (0.358)&    1.654\sym{***}&  (0.360)\\
\hspace{0.1cm} 3rd voteshare (2011)&    0.213         &  (0.977)&   -0.171         &  (1.211)&   -0.566         &  (1.212)&   -1.761\sym{***}&  (0.579)&   -1.915\sym{***}&  (0.669)&   -2.104\sym{***}&  (0.701)\\
\hspace{0.1cm} Voteshare HHI (2011)&   -1.159         &  (0.778)&   -0.873         &  (0.881)&   -0.947         &  (0.894)&   -1.314\sym{*}  &  (0.732)&   -1.066         &  (0.893)&   -1.455\sym{*}  &  (0.826)\\
\hspace{0.1cm} Turnout (2011)&   -0.365         &  (2.127)&   -0.274         &  (2.413)&    0.258         &  (2.497)&    0.395         &  (1.197)&    0.264         &  (1.550)&    1.130         &  (1.446)\\
\hspace{0.1cm} Share of repeat candidates (2017)&    0.179         &  (0.503)&    0.209         &  (0.527)&    0.081         &  (0.557)&    0.207         &  (0.285)&    0.569\sym{*}  &  (0.332)&    0.353         &  (0.326)\\
\hspace{0.1cm} Log population density (2008)&   -0.083\sym{**} &  (0.042)&   -0.050         &  (0.047)&   -0.067         &  (0.046)&   -0.046\sym{*}  &  (0.027)&   -0.050         &  (0.036)&   -0.061\sym{*}  &  (0.032)\\
\hspace{0.1cm} Share with GSM coverage (2015)&    0.236         &  (0.322)&    0.245         &  (0.363)&    0.322         &  (0.351)&    0.199         &  (0.195)&    0.207         &  (0.254)&    0.315         &  (0.241)\\
\hspace{0.1cm} Share owns a radio (2016)&    0.245         &  (0.329)&    0.045         &  (0.390)&    0.201         &  (0.380)&    0.201         &  (0.279)&    0.274         &  (0.345)&    0.373         &  (0.338)\\
\hspace{0.1cm} Share gets radio news often (2016)&    0.089         &  (0.317)&    0.213         &  (0.392)&    0.092         &  (0.362)&   -0.127         &  (0.314)&   -0.274         &  (0.390)&   -0.278         &  (0.370)\\
\hspace{0.1cm} Share over 18 (2008)&    2.445         &  (2.568)&    2.720         &  (2.836)&    3.745         &  (2.839)&   -0.812         &  (1.159)&   -1.285         &  (1.785)&    0.125         &  (1.595)\\
\hspace{0.1cm} Share with secondary education (2008)&    0.299         &  (0.969)&   -0.313         &  (1.300)&   -0.292         &  (1.299)&    1.182\sym{*}  &  (0.631)&    1.237         &  (0.844)&    0.914         &  (0.774)\\
\hspace{0.1cm} Avg. N radio stations covering each town (2016)&   -0.004         &  (0.009)&   -0.005         &  (0.010)&   -0.008         &  (0.010)&   -0.009\sym{*}  &  (0.005)&   -0.010         &  (0.007)&   -0.013\sym{*}  &  (0.007)\\
\hspace{0.1cm} ED: scheduled debate week&   -0.090         &  (0.161)&   -0.068         &  (0.202)&    0.020         &  (0.217)&   -0.132         &  (0.089)&   -0.145         &  (0.127)&   -0.072         &  (0.123)\\
\midrule
\hspace{0.1cm} Observations&    3,496         &         &    3,496         &         &    3,496         &         &    3,496         &         &    3,496         &         &    3,496         &         \\
\hspace{0.1cm} Weight&       No         &         &    1/Obs         &         &  Reg/Obs         &         &       No         &         &    1/Obs         &         &  Reg/Obs         &         \\
\midrule
\textbf{B. Challengers}&                  &         &                  &         &                  &         &                  &         &                  &         &                  &         \\
\hspace{0.1cm} \textit{Intensive Invite}&    0.060         &  (0.066)&    0.066         &  (0.077)&    0.041         &  (0.073)&    0.147\sym{**} &  (0.060)&    0.124         &  (0.079)&    0.097         &  (0.068)\\
\hspace{0.1cm} Days since Sept 1&    0.002         &  (0.001)&    0.001         &  (0.002)&    0.001         &  (0.002)&    0.006\sym{***}&  (0.001)&    0.005\sym{***}&  (0.001)&    0.006\sym{***}&  (0.001)\\
\hspace{0.1cm} Respondent is male&   -0.079\sym{***}&  (0.029)&   -0.042         &  (0.035)&   -0.046         &  (0.033)&   -0.042\sym{*}  &  (0.024)&   -0.014         &  (0.030)&   -0.007         &  (0.029)\\
\hspace{0.1cm} Respondent age&    0.002         &  (0.002)&    0.002         &  (0.002)&    0.003         &  (0.002)&    0.005\sym{***}&  (0.002)&    0.007\sym{***}&  (0.002)&    0.007\sym{***}&  (0.002)\\
\hspace{0.1cm} Candidate party: UP&   -0.055\sym{*}  &  (0.032)&   -0.038         &  (0.028)&   -0.043         &  (0.028)&    0.064\sym{*}  &  (0.033)&    0.016         &  (0.032)&    0.037         &  (0.028)\\
\hspace{0.1cm} Education: Primary&    0.025         &  (0.050)&    0.034         &  (0.058)&    0.025         &  (0.056)&    0.050         &  (0.052)&    0.058         &  (0.068)&    0.030         &  (0.059)\\
\hspace{0.1cm} Education: Secondary&   -0.003         &  (0.044)&   -0.026         &  (0.054)&   -0.043         &  (0.048)&    0.005         &  (0.034)&    0.042         &  (0.039)&    0.020         &  (0.040)\\
\hspace{0.1cm} Education: Tertiary&    0.008         &  (0.030)&    0.016         &  (0.037)&    0.022         &  (0.035)&    0.029         &  (0.034)&    0.020         &  (0.042)&    0.025         &  (0.037)\\
\hspace{0.1cm} Number of candidates (2017)&    0.001         &  (0.007)&    0.001         &  (0.007)&   -0.003         &  (0.006)&   -0.009         &  (0.008)&   -0.009         &  (0.009)&   -0.012         &  (0.007)\\
\hspace{0.1cm} Incumbent ran in election (2017)&    0.000         &  (0.031)&   -0.004         &  (0.030)&   -0.001         &  (0.034)&   -0.015         &  (0.039)&   -0.005         &  (0.039)&   -0.012         &  (0.037)\\
\hspace{0.1cm} Log registered voters (2017)&    0.182\sym{**} &  (0.073)&    0.182\sym{**} &  (0.074)&    0.240\sym{***}&  (0.083)&    0.134         &  (0.089)&    0.136         &  (0.098)&    0.148         &  (0.092)\\
\hspace{0.1cm} Number of debates in district&    0.047         &  (0.049)&    0.060         &  (0.051)&    0.071         &  (0.046)&    0.157\sym{***}&  (0.052)&    0.173\sym{***}&  (0.056)&    0.177\sym{***}&  (0.048)\\
\hspace{0.1cm} 1st voteshare (2011)&   -0.189         &  (0.542)&   -0.169         &  (0.507)&   -0.226         &  (0.567)&    0.899\sym{*}  &  (0.513)&    0.659         &  (0.545)&    0.678         &  (0.520)\\
\hspace{0.1cm} 2nd voteshare (2011)&    0.588         &  (0.379)&    0.639         &  (0.451)&    0.966\sym{**} &  (0.438)&    0.733\sym{*}  &  (0.405)&    0.625         &  (0.479)&    0.944\sym{**} &  (0.444)\\
\hspace{0.1cm} 3rd voteshare (2011)&   -0.913\sym{*}  &  (0.529)&   -0.855         &  (0.644)&   -1.173\sym{*}  &  (0.657)&   -0.838         &  (0.552)&   -0.576         &  (0.713)&   -1.115         &  (0.673)\\
\hspace{0.1cm} Voteshare HHI (2011)&    0.278         &  (0.614)&    0.293         &  (0.582)&    0.259         &  (0.648)&   -1.309\sym{**} &  (0.591)&   -0.961         &  (0.638)&   -1.011         &  (0.615)\\
\hspace{0.1cm} Turnout (2011)&   -0.943         &  (0.587)&   -1.543\sym{**} &  (0.660)&   -1.583\sym{**} &  (0.648)&    0.498         &  (0.656)&    0.183         &  (0.701)&    0.222         &  (0.647)\\
\hspace{0.1cm} Share of repeat candidates (2017)&    0.017         &  (0.159)&    0.013         &  (0.168)&   -0.019         &  (0.182)&    0.122         &  (0.186)&    0.101         &  (0.198)&    0.096         &  (0.197)\\
\hspace{0.1cm} Log population density (2008)&   -0.008         &  (0.023)&    0.039         &  (0.025)&    0.032         &  (0.024)&   -0.032         &  (0.024)&    0.013         &  (0.029)&    0.012         &  (0.026)\\
\hspace{0.1cm} Share with GSM coverage (2015)&   -0.089         &  (0.095)&   -0.179\sym{*}  &  (0.098)&   -0.172         &  (0.104)&    0.075         &  (0.112)&    0.013         &  (0.112)&   -0.008         &  (0.107)\\
\hspace{0.1cm} Share owns a radio (2016)&   -0.325         &  (0.212)&   -0.338         &  (0.210)&   -0.346         &  (0.209)&    0.064         &  (0.234)&   -0.081         &  (0.247)&    0.074         &  (0.208)\\
\hspace{0.1cm} Share gets radio news often (2016)&   -0.020         &  (0.152)&    0.023         &  (0.161)&   -0.040         &  (0.161)&   -0.040         &  (0.142)&    0.013         &  (0.177)&   -0.074         &  (0.153)\\
\hspace{0.1cm} Share over 18 (2008)&   -1.423         &  (0.980)&   -1.710         &  (1.042)&   -1.568         &  (1.091)&    1.003         &  (1.253)&    1.337         &  (1.327)&    1.469         &  (1.274)\\
\hspace{0.1cm} Share with secondary education (2008)&   -0.046         &  (0.546)&   -0.880         &  (0.558)&   -0.809         &  (0.516)&    1.250\sym{**} &  (0.534)&    0.536         &  (0.606)&    0.417         &  (0.533)\\
\hspace{0.1cm} Avg. N radio stations covering each town (2016)&    0.008\sym{*}  &  (0.005)&    0.005         &  (0.005)&    0.005         &  (0.005)&   -0.005         &  (0.005)&   -0.010\sym{*}  &  (0.006)&   -0.009         &  (0.006)\\
\hspace{0.1cm} ED: scheduled debate week&   -0.111\sym{*}  &  (0.066)&   -0.090         &  (0.064)&   -0.100         &  (0.071)&   -0.155\sym{**} &  (0.069)&   -0.140\sym{**} &  (0.069)&   -0.113\sym{*}  &  (0.065)\\
\midrule
\hspace{0.1cm} Observations&    8,686         &         &    8,686         &         &    8,686         &         &    8,686         &         &    8,686         &         &    8,686         &         \\
\hspace{0.1cm} Weight&       No         &         &    1/Obs         &         &  Reg/Obs         &         &       No         &         &    1/Obs         &         &  Reg/Obs         &         \\
